Financial information and analytical estimations (click to show/hide)

воскресенье, 24 мая 2009 г.

The era of convergence

It is becoming well known of MNOs trying to achieve convergence. Megafon top managers pointed during their 2008 financial results presentation that all operators are moving to convergent business one or another way. In this post I'll try to describe current situation and trends in Russia related to this theme.
The first global attemp of achieving convergence in Russia was Golden Telecom purchase by Vimpelcom. It is clear (at least for me) that one of main reasons for that was desire to get extra money from owned company. Altimo got approximatelly $1,128 billion income on this deal. Vimpelcom top managers are still concerned with economic effect of this merge, they confirm that it still didn't achieved. During development projects for new services Vimpelcom managers seldom think about convergent effect. At the moment corporate structures continue to merge and the only effect is in the single procurement and problems with areas of interests dividing among managers.But I'm pretty sure that Vimpelcom will manage to build effective mechanism of joint effective business.
MTS approached this theme in more practical way. There is a convergence department and business marketing department that more or less coordinate decisions with Komstar. Today there are a lot of publications and information regarding close merge of MTS and Komstar. Again there is a big desire for this not only because of getting convergence effect but for getting extra money from MTS (AFK Sistema owning Komstar needs extra funds).
Megafon is famous for its inhouse development (as you could see from retail structure development, a lot of development projects) and I think they will make something on their own basis. But during strategy presentation Megafon CEO told that they plan to invest $500 mlns on convergence and maybe we will see aquisition. At the moment Komstar and Megafon discuss buying Synterra.
I'd like to point out new directions for business development after convergence for MNO.
First of all fixed network operators (Komstar and GT) own widespread networks and magisterial licences - it could bring additional cost saving opportunities for MNO. Vimpelcom is already trying to transmit long distance calls through GT networks (frankly speaking it is additional point of failures because GT magisterial channels are not broad and reliable enough).
Second opportunity is in aligned distribution of services (cross sales) - corporate subscribers of fixed operator could be offered with cost savvy proposals from MNO. Thats why in St. Petersburg MTS is partnering with Severo Zapadniy Telecom (SvyazInvest subsidiary in North West region). In case of deep integration and special IT solutions corporate subscribers could be offered with broad range of integrated services like corporate PBX (with mobiles on special short numbers), mobile offices and so on. Homeowners could be offered with single package of broadband Internet, IPTV and mobile services. IPTV is very interesting for MNOs because it could provide content and hence heavy load for 3G networks. It is very nice surprise of mobile Internet popularity despite of hard financial situation but MNO being the tube isn't a dream for "Great Three".
MNO and fixed operator could use single ISP infrastructure for Internet services and offer similiar services in web: web advertising, policy managing, acceleration.
Another significant issue is in integration of fixed operator VoIP infrastructure and MNOs mobility. I belive that soon we will see extremly new proposals on the basis of mobile IP telephony - WiMax competitors continue development and testing of such services - and MNOs will have to make answering proposals.
To sum up: it is good time to offer or at least begin activities for promotion of convergent solutions and new services (MTS continue to invest in new services, there are rumors that GT projects in Vimpelcom still have budgets). Main convergent solutions are:
  • WEB advertising (MTS and Vimpelcom have such projects in development)
  • WEB policy management
  • Internet acceleration
  • Mobile PBX
  • IP telephony for mobiles
  • Three screens solutions (IPTV, WEB TV, Mobile TV)

Thanks,
Denis.

вторник, 19 мая 2009 г.

Mobile Advertising in Russia

Dear guests, in this post I'd like to bring Mobile Ads in Russia to light.

Mobile Advertising is not an extremly new idea in telecom world. Significant experience is summarized. There are success stories and big failures. One of the most dedicated to this theme resources is Telco 2.0 initiative with big amount of related articles in their blog. From economic point of view it is very attractive to monetize MNOs Subscriber base which is often very big. 50 mlns Subscribers is more than many TV channels have. This service represents new stream of revenue from media agencies, new market free of competitors now but very attentively looked for.

Foreign experience
Mobile Advertising is a special VAS for insertion of advertisement into channels owned by MNO: SMS/MMS/GPRS,EDGE,3G and so on. The most common ways of advertising are:
  • SMS/MMS broadcasted messages with advertisements inside.
  • SMS/MMS ad injection in P2P messages.
  • WAP/WEB banners insertion - ad injection during Internet surfing.
Response ratio is significantly higher in telecom rather than in standard web advertisements mainly due to very effective targeting not only based on Subscriber profile but on his behaviour too.

The most common parameters of targeting are:
  • Demographic
  • Behaviour
  • Context
  • Geographic
List of mobile ad deployments.
  • Blyk UK, Orange UK based MVNO with ad sponsored services. 2007. Push SMS, Push MMS, SMS Intercept. Airwide (First Hope). 6 incoming messages per day give 43 minutes of calling and 217 SMS per month.
  • Airtel India, Mobile Ad. 2007. Airtel Live!, Push-SMS. Openwave.
  • Virgin Mobile USA. Mobile ad campaign SugarMama. 2006. Push SMS, WEB banners.
  • China Mobile, Mobile Ad. 2008. WAP banners, Ad insertion into RingBackTone, Weather Forecast ad insertion, Missed Call ad insertion, MMS magazine.
  • Wind Greece, Mobile Ad. 2007. Idle screen advertising. Velti.
  • Vodafone Italy, Spain, Greece, Czech Republic. Mobile Ad. 2008 Vodafone Live! Banners, P2P SMS Intercept, idle-screen. Amobee.
  • TIM Italy, Mobile Ad. 2007. P2P SMS, P2P MMS Intercept, WAP-banners. Mobixell.

Mobile Advertising still represent small amount of income. Operators are trying to find the most effective ways of interaction with Subscribers. Gartner supposes 1% of income of MNOs are related to Mobile Advertising and in 2012 this share should grow up to 2%-7%.

The current moment is very good for mobile advertising because all media agencies and advertisers are looking for new ways of advertising. Mobile advertising is very effective and very cheap same time. World experience tells that it is very significant to give relevant bonuses to Subscribers and perform opt in before feeding them with advertising.

Russian situation
In Russia almost all MNOs are thinking of Mobile Advertising. Megafon has many ad sites and launched several campaigns already. They perform this project on HQ level. Not sure whether it will lead to centralized carrier grade platform deployment but they are evaluating such possibilities. Some projections from Megafon Commercial Director Larisa Tkachuk could be found here.

Beeline is going to start a tender for this project for carrier grade ad platform. They already have good experience in Mobile Advertising (USSD tails in balance reports and several more). I think they will launch something in the end of this year, not sooner. Main problem is absence of even small amount of money in Vimpelcom. But Mobile Advertising is one of projects which could be simply started on revenue sharing basis (at least in the beginning).

MTS launched several ad campaigns too and preparing requirements to production platform. I heard that they are going to start this project in several months. At the moment they have MMS magazine and several more projects. You may find more detailed information here. It is a good time to offer a trial to them, I think.

So, mainstream of Mobile Advertising in Russia is SMS/MMS broadcasts and intercepts, WAP/WEB banners insertion in third party portals. At the end of last year MNOs performed attempt to align forces in this area but nothing serious appeared. Currently problem is not in deploying new system but in discovering huge potential of advertisements - this is extremly new channels and advertisers afraid of investing in a new channel while MNOs afraid of loosing loyalty of its Subscribers. The story just begins. Have a good time watching it and may be participating ;-)

Thanks,
Denis.

пятница, 15 мая 2009 г.

Industry exhibition

This week all Telecom industry was in good mood with the help of SvyazExpoCom 2009. Strange and a little bit ugly name but still the oldest telecom exhibition in Russia.

First of all I'd like to mention very tight attention of Government to this exhibition. Russian president attented the exhibition and visited several sites. It brings idea that Government is trying to solve crisis issues by stimulating telecom industry.


One of the most interesting places was pavilion with MNOs: SvyazInvest, MTS, Megafon, Beeline, Tele2.

SvyazInvest had one of the biggest two storey stands. From the early beginning they were visited by very powerfull persons: Medvedev (President), Schegolev (Minister of Communications). Many managers from daughter companies attended this exhibition and could be met at the stand.
MTS stand was joint with AFK Sistema actives. Intellect Telecom, Komstar, Skylink, MTS shared one big stand. MTS was demonstrating several corporate VASes (LBS, Messaging, 3G) and new brand Omlet with video streaming capabilities on mobile and web. Dmitry Medvedev didn't visit AFK Sistema stand despite of presence of AFK Sistema owner Evtushenkov and many top managers like Shamolin (MTS), Pridancev (Komstar). Evtushenkov said that there is 90% possibility that Medvedev will attend AFK Sistema and I thought "Even such powerfil persons couldn't predict future. Hence the more detailed you could predict future the more powerful you are. It is not the matter of money, but it is the matter of analytical skills."
Beeline. They had "Beeline City" stand. First of all Russian president paid attention to Beeline. He looked at Mobile TV (DVB-H standard). Another interesting features on their stand are: IPTV demo (Corbina) which recently commercial launched, Business services and 3G. President interest in Beeline could be thought as Government support to the company with shareholders war. They say that 1/3 of debt to pay in 2009 is already paid but very bad financials will push Beeline further down.
Megafon had similiar big stand with Smarts infront of it. They were quiet and as always green. They didn't show anything special but were presented. There are rumors that there was a message to all big telecom players to be presented at the exhibition in order not to be against Government willing to raise SvyazExpoCom power. Megafons so called MVNO Prosto was presented on different stand and was very popular.

Thanks,
Denis.

четверг, 14 мая 2009 г.

Time to name a winner

Yesterday Vimpelcom announced financial results. They were the last out of "Great Three". I'll discuss the results of "Great Three", current situation and make some predictions.


  1. MTS

  2. Vimpelcom

  3. Megafon

MTS remains the number one MNO as its income is 50.5 blns rubles. The most interesting competition is about second place. Below you may find Megafon feeling of market share.


I believe that it is not far from truth. Megafon was very successful in 4Q with anticrisis actions. Megafon acts according to market: enhanced bonuses, new tariff Prosto and even overall feeling that Megafon is the cheapest MNO helps them. MTS seems to be able not to respond to the crisis because of good financial conditions. But Beeline fastly loose its advantages over Megafon. Almost all projects are frozen, even significant ones. There is no contraction to the new environment. It seems that they don't realize that market changed, that new turns required. Possibly, it is because new top management haven't taken control of the company.

MTS is aggresively launching new projects in order to grow up VAS revenue. Megafon is concentrated on cheap proposals.

I believe that in near future Megafon will become number two MNO, Beeline will go down. It is not a good choice to hold Vimpelcom shares but MTS shares are still underscored I think.

Thanks,
Denis.