Downturn economy predictions and trends

I believe that crisis it's not only the time for loosing but it is very good time for gathering new clients. It is a good time for gathering mainly because of other players loosing. Some MNOs will loose their Subscribers (sale less new contracts with increased churn rate) other will gain them. Some vendors and SI will loose deals and in same time more active and wise one will gain new contracts and business development.
Subscribers begin to perform much more detailed analysis of their spendings. MTS first took this paradigm with New Year tariff advertising as I mentioned in previous post.
I'd like to share my thoughts on Russian Mobile market trends in 2009:

• MNOs will launch several 3G oriented services. After spending millions on 3G infrastructure it is strongly required to fill networks with content services like Mobile TV, Mobile Radio, Video Calling services. Russian Great Three MNOs have project groups for such projects and already performed some investigations of launching such services. Some vendors offered their experience and systems. In 2009 commercial launch should be made.
• Mobile Advertising. It could be additional revenue generation factor from WAP/WEB banners insertion, SMS/MMS peer to peer ad insertion and of course MMS campaigns with rich content ads. 2009 could be the starting year of these activities.
• Simple Video Call propositions.
• Device based Mobile Internet. Widgets, specialized portals, new internet offerings, branded internet web browsers will be started for evaluation.
• Mobile Commerce. MNOs will enhance their activities in attracting Subscribers to mobile payments. This interest was emphasized at the conference. http://www.mobilepaymentsrussia.ru/
• Mobile Broadband. MNOs will try to compete with mobile broadband offerings like Yota (www.yota.ru). Special flat rate tariffs will be proposed. As example Vimpelcom already propose switching to Apple Fresh tariff (with unlimited GPRS internet) with other than Apple iPhone models. Hence IP compression and optimisation tools will take popularity (P2P traffic optimisation etc).
• Pricing wars. In downturn time there is a big desire to attract more Subscribers with special anticrisis discounts. This trend already seen on market. Additionally advanced discounts could be entered on market - as example cell load discount (discount when nearest cell isn't loaded) in order to spread load on network and hence increase cpacity, delayed content delivery discount (get content later while network isn't loaded for cheaper price).
• Content portals improvements. More content, much easier access. Megafon and Beeline will try to reach MTS portal success.
• MNOs will increase their efforts on corporate Subscribers attraction. Beeline will use its Golden Telecom actives for such proposition. Megafon is going to build it's own infrastructure, MTS will increase collaboration with Komstar. As example special office GSM routers could gain popularity (http://www.megafonnw.ru/info/rus/news/pressreleazes/mobile_cabinet_3grouter.html).
• Much stronger requirements to ROI of vendors offerings. I think will be initiated projects with ROI in less than 1 year.
• Closer integration and cooperation with retail industry to gain additional revenue.
• Branded phones proposals. Modu phones, Huawei etc.
• MVNO developments and startups. But I'm sure in their unsuccess except ad funded mobile communications like in Blyk.
• All MNO will try to gain minimization of investments and proposition of revenue sharing models with almost zero investitions. In case some system integrators could provide end to end solution (system infratructure, deployment, licenses, content) they could be a leader in tenders on such systems.
• MNOs will try to attract independent software developers like Orange, T-Mobile, AT&T do (http://developer.t-mobile.com/site/global/home/p_home.jsp). So called application stores could gain popularity.
• Maybe Beeline and Megafon will realize that content aggregators are the showstoppers in their content success. :-)

Additionally I'd like to add these thoughts:

http://mobile-thoughts.blogspot.com/

http://www.m-trends.org/2009/01/mobile-and-wireless-predictions-for-2009.html

Thanks,

Denis.